Predictive Scheduling

What Is Predictive Scheduling?

Predictive scheduling refers to labor laws that require employers to provide employees with advance notice of their work schedules. These laws aim to give workers more stability and predictability in their lives by ensuring they know when they'll work days or weeks ahead of time, rather than receiving last-minute schedule changes.

While California does not have a statewide predictive scheduling law, several major California cities have enacted their own ordinances, including San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Emeryville. These local laws typically require covered employers to provide schedules 14 days in advance and pay premiums when making last-minute changes.

Why Predictive Scheduling Laws Exist

Unpredictable work schedules create significant challenges for hourly workers:

• Childcare difficulties: Cannot arrange reliable childcare without knowing work hours
• Second job conflicts: Impossible to hold multiple jobs with fluctuating schedules
• Education barriers: Cannot commit to classes or training programs
• Financial instability: Variable hours mean unpredictable income
• Health impacts: Irregular schedules disrupt sleep, meals, and stress levels

Predictive scheduling laws address these issues by shifting the burden of uncertainty from employees to employers.

California Cities with Predictive Scheduling Laws

San Francisco Fair Workweek Ordinance (2015)

San Francisco pioneered predictive scheduling with the nation's first Formula Retail Employee Rights Ordinance:

Requirement	Details
Covered employers	Retail establishments with 40+ locations worldwide and 20+ SF employees
Advance notice	14 days minimum
Schedule changes	Premium pay required for changes after posting
Right to rest	Cannot schedule work within 11 hours of prior shift end
Good faith estimate	Must provide written estimate of expected hours at hire

Los Angeles Fair Work Week Ordinance (2023)

Los Angeles enacted comprehensive predictive scheduling protections:

Requirement	Details
Covered employers	Retail businesses with 300+ employees globally
Covered employees	Earn less than 2x minimum wage, work primarily in Los Angeles
Advance notice	14 days minimum
Predictability pay	1-4 hours of pay for schedule changes
Right to rest	10-hour rest period between shifts
Access to hours	Existing employees offered additional hours before new hires

Emeryville Fair Workweek Ordinance (2017)

Emeryville's ordinance covers retail and fast food:

Requirement	Details
Covered employers	Retail/fast food with 56+ global employees and 20+ in Emeryville
Advance notice	14 days minimum
Schedule changes	Premium pay required
Part-time parity	Same access to time off as full-time employees
Record keeping	4-year retention requirement

Core Components of Predictive Scheduling Laws

1. Advance Notice Requirements

All predictive scheduling laws require employers to provide schedules ahead of time:

What must be provided:

• Complete schedule with all shifts for the notice period
• Start and end times for each shift
• Work location if it varies
• Written or electronic format accessible to employees

When it must be provided:

• Typically 14 days before the first day of the schedule
• Some laws started at 7 days and increased to 14 days
• Posted in a conspicuous location and provided individually

2. Premium Pay for Schedule Changes

When employers change schedules after posting, they must pay premiums:

San Francisco predictability pay:

Change Type	Premium
Add hours/shift	1 hour of pay at regular rate
Change shift time	1 hour of pay at regular rate
Reduce hours (with notice)	1 hour of pay at regular rate
Cancel shift (< 24 hours)	Half of scheduled pay
On-call, not called in	2-4 hours of pay

Los Angeles predictability pay:

Change Type	Premium
Add time to shift (< 14 days notice)	1 hour of pay
Cancel/reduce shift (14+ days, 24+ hours notice)	0 hours
Cancel/reduce shift (< 72 hours notice)	Half of scheduled hours
Cancel/reduce shift (< 24 hours notice)	Full scheduled hours
Change start/end time	1 hour of pay

3. Good Faith Estimate of Hours

At time of hire, covered employers must provide:

• Expected number of hours per week
• Expected days and times of work
• Expected work locations
• Whether on-call shifts may be required

If actual hours deviate significantly from the estimate, employees may have grounds for complaints.

4. Right to Rest Between Shifts

Predictive scheduling laws typically include right to rest provisions:

• Minimum hours required between the end of one shift and start of another
• Usually 10-11 hours of rest
• Employees can voluntarily waive with written consent
• Addresses the clopening shift problem

5. Access to Additional Hours

Before hiring new employees, covered employers must:

1. Post notice of available shifts to existing employees
2. Allow employees to express interest in additional hours
3. Offer shifts to qualified existing employees first
4. Document reasons if new hires are selected instead

Which Employers Are Covered?

Coverage varies by city but generally includes:

Industry Focus

City	Covered Industries
San Francisco	Formula retail (chain stores with standardized appearance)
Los Angeles	Retail businesses
Emeryville	Retail and fast food

Size Thresholds

Predictive scheduling laws target larger employers:

• Global employee counts: 40-300+ employees worldwide
• Local employee counts: 10-20+ employees in the city
• Not small businesses: Mom-and-pop shops typically exempt

Employee Coverage

Not all employees at covered employers are protected:

• Hourly workers: Generally covered
• Management: Often excluded if they have scheduling authority
• High earners: Some laws exclude employees earning above a threshold
• New hires: May have reduced protections during probationary period

Compliance Requirements for Employers

Schedule Posting

1. Create compliant schedules at least 14 days in advance
2. Post conspicuously at the workplace
3. Provide individual copies in writing or electronically
4. Document delivery with timestamps or acknowledgments

Record Keeping

Covered employers must maintain records for 3-4 years:

• All posted schedules
• Good faith estimates provided to employees
• Schedule change notices
• Predictability pay documentation
• Written consent for clopening shifts
• Communications about additional hours

Required Notices and Postings

• Workplace poster explaining employee rights
• Written notice of rights at time of hire
• Notice of any schedule changes with required premiums
• Documentation of good faith estimate

Calculating Predictability Pay

Example 1: Shift Added After Posting

Maria works at a covered retail store in Los Angeles. Her posted schedule shows Tuesday off, but on Monday, her manager asks her to work Tuesday 10am-4pm.

• Added shift: 6 hours
• Predictability pay: 1 hour at Maria's regular rate
• Total compensation for Tuesday: 7 hours of pay

Example 2: Shift Cancelled Same Day

Jose is scheduled for a 5pm-10pm shift in San Francisco. At 3pm, he's told the shift is cancelled.

• Cancelled shift: 5 hours
• Notice: Less than 24 hours
• Predictability pay: Half of scheduled hours = 2.5 hours
• Jose receives: 2.5 hours of pay for the cancelled shift

Example 3: Shift Time Changed

Aisha's posted schedule shows 9am-3pm on Saturday. Her manager changes it to 12pm-6pm.

• Same hours: 6 hours
• Start/end time changed: Yes
• Predictability pay: 1 hour
• Total compensation: 7 hours of pay

Exceptions and Exemptions

Schedule Changes Without Premium Pay

Employers may avoid predictability pay when:

• Employee requests the change: Worker initiates shift swap or time off
• Mutual agreement: Both parties agree to the change in writing
• Shift trades: Employees voluntarily trade shifts
• Discipline: Employee sent home for documented policy violation
• Threats to safety: Natural disasters, power failures, public emergencies
• Operations cease: Unexpected closure due to acts of god

Business Exemptions

Certain situations may exempt businesses:

• Newly opened locations (grace period in some ordinances)
• Businesses under a certain size threshold
• Seasonal operations (in some jurisdictions)
• Businesses ceasing operations

Penalties for Non-Compliance

Administrative Penalties

City	Penalty Range
San Francisco	Up to $500 per employee per violation
Los Angeles	Up to $500 per violation
Emeryville	Up to $1,000 per violation

Private Right of Action

Employees may sue for:

• Unpaid predictability pay
• Actual damages
• Penalties and interest
• Attorney's fees and costs

Agency Enforcement

City agencies actively enforce predictive scheduling laws through:

• Complaint investigations
• Employer audits
• Penalty assessments
• Settlement negotiations

Best Practices for Compliance

Scheduling Process

1. Build schedules early: Start creating schedules 3+ weeks out
2. Account for known needs: Include anticipated busy periods
3. Buffer with on-call cautiously: Understand on-call scheduling rules
4. Avoid clopening shifts: Build in rest time between shifts

Technology Solutions

Modern scheduling software helps with:

• Automatic compliance checking before schedule posting
• Predictability pay calculations when changes occur
• Digital schedule distribution with delivery confirmation
• Record retention for audit purposes
• Employee access to additional hours notifications

Manager Training

Ensure all scheduling managers understand:

• Advance notice deadlines
• When predictability pay applies
• How to document employee-requested changes
• Proper procedures for offering additional hours
• Consequences of non-compliance

Statewide Predictive Scheduling Legislation

While California does not have a statewide predictive scheduling law, legislative efforts continue:

Recent attempts:

• AB 5 (2019) focused on worker classification but sparked scheduling discussions
• Various assembly bills have proposed statewide fair workweek standards
• Advocacy groups continue pushing for comprehensive state legislation

What statewide law might include:

• Universal advance notice requirements
• Consistent predictability pay standards
• Broader industry coverage beyond retail
• Uniform compliance standards across all cities

Employers should monitor legislative developments and prepare for potential expansion of these requirements.